Price Trends for Single Family Homes in Naples Zip Code 34103

This Week
Monday August 23, 2010

The median list price in NAPLES, FL 34103 this week is $648,950.

Inventory is tightening and days-on-market is falling. But demand
as measured by the Market Action Index is also trending down. The
market is not giving strong up or down signals from these data.

Supply and Demand

The market has been consistently cool for several weeks. Demand
level are low relative to the available inventory. It’s a Buyer’s
market and prices continue to fall. Look for a persistent shift in
Market Action before prices plateau or begin to rise again.

Price

Again this week in this zip code we see a downward notch for
prices. Pricing has been weak in recent weeks and versus their
absolute-high level. At this point, we will be looking for a
persistent upward shift in the Market Action Index as a leading
indicator for a trough in prices.

Is a Naples Lifestyle for you?

Tucked into Florida’s south west corner lies the “The Jewel of the Gulf”
Naples, FL is a tropical paradise rich in economic vitality and luxury living. This coastal community with its almost constant breeze off the Gulf of Mexico is the best place to enjoy an active, healthy outdoor lifestyle year round. The pristine beaches, charming outdoor cafes and local markets are perfect for romantic escapes.
Naples is home to not one, but two Ritz Carlton’s which set the standard for the amenities and services that are found in Naples. From upscale shopping, galleries and performing arts venues to seemingly endless dining choices “The Jewel of the Gulf” provides a standard of living not found anywhere else in Florida. It’s the perfect place to live, work or visit!

NOAA Models Long-Term Oil Threat to Gulf and East Coast Shoreline

Much of the west coast of Florida has a low probability (20 percent down to less than 1 percent) of oiling…

NOAA has used modeling of historical wind and ocean currents to project the likelihood that surface oil from the Deepwater Horizon/BP oil spill will impact additional U.S. coastline. This modeling, part of NOAA’s comprehensive response to the unprecedented Gulf oil disaster, can help guide the ongoing preparedness, response and cleanup efforts…..

The NOAA model indicates:

The coastlines with the highest probability for impact (81 to 100 percent) extend from the Mississippi River Delta to the western panhandle of Florida where there has been and will likely continue to be oil impacts.

Along U.S. Gulf of Mexico shorelines, the oil is more likely to move east than west, with much of the coast of Texas showing a relatively low probability of oiling (ranging from less than one percent in southern Texas to up to 40 percent near the Louisiana border).

Much of the west coast of Florida has a low probability (20 percent down to less than one percent) of oiling, but the Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas have a greater probability (61 to 80 percent) due to the potential influence of the Loop Current. Any oil reaching this area would have spent considerable time degrading and dispersing and would be in the form of scattered tar balls and not a large surface slick of oil.

There is a low probability of shoreline impacts from eastern central Florida up the Eastern Seaboard (20 percent diminishing to less than one percent). Potential impacts become increasingly unlikely north of North Carolina as the Gulf Stream moves away from the continental U.S. at Cape Hatteras. If oil does reach these areas, it will be in the form of tar balls or highly weathered oil.

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Flood Insurance Extended

On July 2, President Obama signed into law H.R. 5569, an extension of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) authority until September 30. The bill is retroactive and will cover the lapse period from June 1 to the date of enactment. NAR will continue to work with Congress on the 5-year NFIP Reform bill and will continue to provide regular updates on our efforts.

For more information, please click here

Federal Tax Report, Closing Date Extended to September 30. 2010

Capitol Washington D.C. It wasn’t pretty, and the debate went well into the evening, but on June 30 the Senate passed a stand- alone bill that extended the date for closing on a tax credit-eligible home from June 30 to September 30, 2010. The bill passed the Senate on a voice vote in a process known as “unanimous consent.” A stand-alone bill is a single issue bill that contains just one provision (and, if needed, its “pay-fors.”) Stand-alone tax bills are a rarity in the Senate, but the urgency was well understood. Earlier in the week, the House had passed a stand-alone extension (HR 5623) by a vote of 409 – 5.

The White House has said that President Obama will sign the bill, although the timing for the signing is not yet known. The extension is seamless, so closings that occur between July 1 and the date the President signs the legislation will satisfy the requirements of the credit. In order to get the benefit of this closing date extension, the parties must have entered into a contract for the purchase on or before April 30, 2010.

http://www.realtor.org/home_buyers_and_sellers/2009_first_time_home_buyer_tax_credit

Pending Home Sales Drop as Expected

Following a surge driven by the home buyer tax credit, pending home sales fell with the expiration of the deadline for qualified buyers to sign a purchase contract, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, dropped 30.0 percent to 77.6 based on contracts signed in May from a reading of 110.9 in April, and is 15.9 percent below May 2009 when it was 92.3. The falloff comes on the heels of three strong monthly gains as home buyers rushed to take advantage of the tax credit.

The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months. However, many closings have been delayed recently from a rush of buyers into the system and slow processing of short sales, in addition to the heavy volume and a more thorough loan underwriting process. As many as 180,000 buyers who signed contracts by April 30 may have missed the June 30 closing deadline for the tax credit. However, Congress passed legislation yesterday to extend the deadline for delayed contracts and President Obama is expected to sign.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, “Consumers are rational and they rushed to meet the tax credit eligibility deadline in April. The sharp decline in contract signings in May is a natural result with similar low levels of sales activity anticipated in June,” he said. “Surprisingly, though, some local markets such as Portland, Maine, and Jacksonville, Fla., actually experienced an increase in contract signings from a year ago without the tax credit.”

Congress also reauthorized the National Flood Insurance Program. Many lenders were hesitant to approve mortgages on homes needing flood insurance without congressional action and numerous sales have been on hold. The action is retroactive to a temporary authorization that expired May 31, and also is expected to be signed by the president.

Yun noted the tax credit has broadly stabilized home prices. “Without the tax credit, there will be more aggressive price negotiations between buyers and sellers. The key test on whether the housing market can stand on its own without stimulus medicine will depend critically on private sector job creation in the second half of the year. We’ll also keep a close eye on market conditions on the Gulf Coast.”

Through May of this year 495,000 net private sector jobs have been created; NAR’s forecast for employment growth is about 1 million additional net new jobs over the balance of the year and another 2 million in 2011.

“If jobs come back as expected, the pace of home sales should pick up later this year and reach a sustainable level of activity given very favorable affordability conditions,” Yun said.

“In most areas of the country there will be no sharp snap back in home prices in the upcoming years, although some local markets have experienced double-digit gains this year,” Yun said. NAR forecasts the national median home price to rise only 4 percent cumulatively over the next two years.

“One factor that could lead to price acceleration in upcoming years for some markets is if the very low levels of new-home construction were to persist for another year or two,” he added.

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 31.6 percent to 67.0 in May and is 14.8 percent lower than May 2009. In the Midwest the index dropped 32.1 percent to 70.8 and is 20.2 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South fell 33.3 percent to an index of 82.5, and are 14.4 percent lower than May 2009. In the West the index declined 20.9 percent to 85.3 and is 15.1 percent below a year ago.

Source: NAR

Tax Credit Extension Passes; Senate OKs Flood Bill

After a close brush with a deadline that could have impacted tens of thousands of home buyers, the U.S. Congress last night passed an extension of the Home buyer Tax Credit closing deadline.

The extension is included in the Home Buyer Assistance and Improvement Act (H.R. 5623) and will prevent as many as 180,000 home buyers from losing their eligibility for the tax credit through no fault of their own. These households had home purchase contracts pending as of April 30 and had until June 30 to close on their purchases to claim the federal tax credit. Under the legislation that passed last night, these households now have until September 30 to close.

The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® supported extension of that closing deadline because buyers are experiencing delays in getting their financing closed. The delays are the result of the large number of transactions that are short sales, which can take a long time to close, and the rush of transactions lenders are processing from buyers submitting contracts before the April 30 contract deadline.

The legislation, which now goes to President Obama for signature, is designed to create a seamless extension of the closing deadline; there will be no gap between June 30 and the date the President signs the bill into law.

NAR worked closely with congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle in supporting lawmakers’ passage of the legislation, which the association says will help provide additional stability to real estate markets across the nation.

Separately, the U.S. Senate also last night passed the National Flood Insurance Program Extension Act of 2010 (H.R. 5569), which extends the National Flood Insurance Program until September 30. This will allow home purchases in the 100-year floodplain to move forward. The House passed the bill last week.

When signed into law by the President, the bill, which will apply retroactively, will cover the lapse period from June 1 to the date of enactment of the extension. Without flood insurance, households buying homes in the 100-year floodplain cannot obtain mortgage financing.

Source: NAR

Where America’s Money Is Moving

Surprise: America’s wealthy like warm weather and low taxes. That’s the takeaway from IRS data, analyzed by Forbes, on moves between counties. We looked for counties that the rich are moving to in big numbers.
Topping the list: Collier County, Fla., which includes the city of Naples. Tax returns accounting for 15,150 people showed moves to Collier County from other parts of the country in 2008, the latest year for which IRS data is available. Their average reported income: $76,161 per person–equivalent to $304,644 for a family of four. Although slightly more taxpayers moved out of Collier County than into it, the departing residents’ average income came out to just $26,128 per person.

Households that moved to Collier County principally came from other parts of Florida, with Lee, Miami Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Orange counties leading the list. Big northern cities also sent lots of migrants: Cook County, Ill. (home to Chicago); Oakland County, Mich. (near Detroit); and Suffolk County, N.Y. (on Long Island) each sent more than 100 people to Collier County during 2008.
In second place is Greene County, Ga., with a population of just 15,743 at the Census Bureau’s last estimate. The IRS data show that in 2008, 788 people moved to the county, about 75 miles east of Atlanta.
Rounding out the top five: Nassau County, Fla., near Jacksonville; Llano County, Texas, 70 miles northwest of Austin; and Walton County, Fla., 80 miles east of Pensacola.
The dominance of the list by Florida and Texas–the former has eight of the top 20 counties, the latter four– makes sense to Robert Shrum, manager of state affairs at the Tax Foundation in Washington, D.C., since neither state has an income tax. “If you’re a high-income earner, then that, from a tax perspective, is going to be a driving decider if you’re going to move to one of those two states,” Shrum says.
After accounting for property taxes, Shrum’s analysis shows that Texas has the fourth-lowest personal tax burden in the country, and Florida has the eighth lowest. Shrum also points to eight states that have targeted wealthy households with extra-high tax brackets: California, New Jersey, New York, Maryland, Hawaii, Oregon, Connecticut and Wisconsin. Six of the top 10 counties the rich are fleeing are located in those states.

Pitkin County, Colo., home to the pricey Aspen ski community, where home listings average more than $3.5 million, saw an exodus of rich people in 2008 as the economy began to contract. The 962 tax filers and dependents who left Pitkin had an average income of $71,473 per capita, while the equivalent figure for those moving to the county was $30,000 lower. Of those leaving Pitkin County, 224 moved to neighboring Garfield County where, according to real estate information service Trulia, homes list for 75% less than those in Pitkin County. IRS data also show movement from the resort area to cities like New York, Chicago and San Francisco.
Behind the Numbers
To find places the rich are moving, Forbes used IRS data on household moves broken down by county and income. We included counties where arriving households are richer than households that didn’t move and departing households are poorer than households that didn’t move. The final ranking orders counties by the difference in per-capita income between incoming households and those that didn’t move.
Our ranking of places the rich are fleeing essentially reverses these criteria, looking for counties where departing households are wealthier than the population as a whole and where incoming households are poorer.
In order to find patterns among the wealthy, we restricted the lists to counties where departing or arriving households had per-capita incomes of $35,000 or more. That figure is equivalent to an annual income of $140,000 for a family of four–a very high income for any large subset of the American population (of 3,142 counties with IRS data, only 130 have average incomes above this level). And in order to avoid statistical anomalies, we only included counties with at least 500 people listed as arriving or departing.
This technique essentially finds new hot spots–places that aren’t necessarily wealthy now but where wealthy people are moving. Some upscale places like Westchester County, N.Y., and Teton County, Wy., don’t make the list because people moving into those counties aren’t as rich as the people who already live there.
The IRS warns that these counts are only approximations; because they don’t include households that don’t file income tax returns, poor and elderly people are underrepresented. These counts also don’t include returns filed after late-September 2009–a small fraction of total returns that tends to include some very rich people with complex returns who file for extensions.

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